Donald Trump Feints Like a Boxer

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Donald Trump Feints Like a Boxer

Donald Trump Feints Like a Boxer


The Market / Political View from Adam Jepsen, Founder, Financial Spreads.


- - - - Donald Trump Feints Like a Boxer (Expect Two More Feints) - - - -

The Donald has outmanoeuvred his Republican opponents again. Hillary Clinton should expect two more feints.

Until the recent change of tack, Trump was on the back foot.

He had been promising the disgruntled American masses an end to their winter of their discontent.

Alas, the coming of spring shone a bright and unwelcome light on the billionaire's campaign.

There have been violent rallies, increased media opposition and even his campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, hit the headlines when he physically pulled a reporter away from Trump.

Let us not forget the Republican candidate's best efforts to lose the entire female vote after a tweet about Ted Cruz's wife and tying himself in knots over his policy on abortion.

The New Yorker looked like he was in a spot of bother.

However, he did what needed to be done. He toned down the rhetoric and told everyone that he could be presidential.

On Tuesday, he won five-out-of-five mid-Atlantic states including the important win of Pennsylvania.

The former casino owner's gamble paid off in spades.

Of course, as a voter, if your main alternative is the hard line Republican Ted Cruz then you might consider yourself stuck between a rock and hard place.

After Tuesday's win the New Yorker's victory speech was safe but he still needed to drive his campaign. He also needed to reassure his supporters and give them what they crave.

There was a simple braggadocious solution. He called himself the "presumptive nominee".


- - - - What Next? - - - -

He will continue to be braggadocious but he will keep the extremes on the backburner.

In yesterday's foreign policy speech he even referred to "defending the border" rather than "building the wall".

This feint to "being presidential" is naturally focused on improving his chances of being made the Republican candidate if there is a contested convention in July.

With a strong delegate lead, and even with contested convention, it looks increasingly likely that Trump will be the Republican nominee.

(The bookies have him as the firm favourite to be the nominee while they make his two closest rivals outsiders. Ted Cruz is 8-1 and John Kasich is 45-1).


- - - - 'Crooked Hillary' Should Expect a Large Dose of Character Assassination - - - -

In a Clinton-Trump race, Hillary's team will have to work hard on damage limitation. That is easier said than done.

The Donald has an unnerving gift when it comes to character assassination and sound bites.

He has already left Jeb "embarrassment to his family" Bush and "Little Marco" (Rubio) in his wake.

There is also "Lyin' Ted" and he's started on "Crooked Hillary".

The billionaire will continue throughout the Presidential campaign to nip and bite at Clinton's Achilles heel, 'Emailgate'.

Using her personal email for work when she was Secretary of State seems like a bizarre thing to do.

The fact that the former First Lady deleted large volumes of emails and her story seems to have changed a few times won't help.

'Emailgate' to Trump will be like a dog with an extra juicy bone.


- - - - 'Crooked' Hillary Should Expect Two More Feints: Feint One, Part A - - - -

Once he becomes Republican nominee he will feint again.

Many of his views in the past have been far more inline with traditional Democrat rather than Republican doctrine.

This is probably why he made such as a mess of his policy on Planned Parenthood. He tried to appease both Democrats and Republicans on a very divisive issue.

It is also one of the reasons why he has been fantastically vague when it comes to almost any policy detail.

The other reason he has been vague on policy is because it will be easier for the New Yorker to capture some the middle ground.

His sound bites in the race to be Republican nominee will not tie him down in the Presidential race.


- - - Feint One, Part B - - - -

In the same manoeuvre he will return to more extreme speeches to consolidate his supporter base and attract disgruntled Democrats and independent voters.

Whilst his speeches may seem unpalatable, the 'anti-establishment, anti-immigration and pro-protectionism' line is a vote winner in many countries.


- - - - Feint Two - - - -

The bookies have Hillary as a clear favourite to be the next President but a Clinton-Trump race may well to be a close run contest.

If so, I expect the next manoeuvre as race edges closer to the election on 8 November, also see Quick US Election Trading Guide.

Trump will simply repeat what he's done over the past few weeks. He will tone down the rhetoric and tell everyone he can be presidential.

Perhaps I'm biased. I have a small bet with the bookies on Trump to be President and I am looking to switch it to Hillary once the race gets close. I still believe she will win.

Of course, the billionaire could wrong-foot me too. Perhaps we will see him calling himself the "presumptive President" come October.

Will we see a Republican TV/Film star in the White House? We've seen it before.


The above is the personal view of Adam Jepsen, Founder, Financial Spreads.


By Adam Jepsen, 28 April 2016


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