Double Trouble For the Markets if Trump Wins
The Market and Political View from Adam Jepsen, Founder, Financial Spreads.
At the moment, it looks like Hillary Clinton is firmly priced-in to be the next President and that might be a reasonable assumption.
However, the markets appear to be far too complacent with regards to the risk of Donald Trump becoming President.
In fact, during the whole campaign the markets have been unfazed by the Republican.
While the US dollar did strengthen after Clinton had a solid first Presidential TV debate there hasn't been a great deal of movement.
Looking back at the nominations, the markets didn't bat an eyelid as Trump worked his way through the other Republican contenders.
- - - Two Key Short-Term Trading Problems with a Trump Win - - -
The markets view a Hillary win as the best result. Therefore many investors will have two immediate problems if the Trumps get the keys to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
Firstly, with Hillary looking to be firmly priced-in, a Trump win would mean that many positions are going to be quickly unwound.
There could be some quick selling of the dollar, Dow Jones
, S&P 500
as investors get out of, or even reverse, their positions.
Secondly, investors also have to react to what the new Presidency actually means. Trying to gauge a Trump Presidency is like looking into an opaque crystal ball.
Given that the markets can be skittish and short-term-ist at the best of times they won't like this high level of uncertainty. The selling could be somewhere between brisk and panic.
- - - Not All One Way Traffic - - -
Of course, because the markets can be rather short-term-ist, even if Trump wins, it's unlikely he'll be able to do too much damage in the immediate-term.
Therefore, even if the markets sell off, and depending upon his 'winning' rhetoric, it's easy to see the markets make a significant recovery within one or two weeks of the election.
- - - The Bookmakers and Polls Do Get it Wrong - - -
There are certainly trading opportunities coming up but investors need to think about the risks, particularly if the markets take flight.
Anyone long of the dollar or US stocks should be very careful. There is a genuine risk of a rapid sell off.
Again, it looks like we'll have another Clinton in the White House but Trump is not dead and buried.
The bookies have him at 5/1 and that's a tempting price in a two horse race.
It's a particularly large price when Trump is only 3-6% behind in most of the polls and the same polls often show 5-10% of voters are still undecided.
Also, we should not forget that UK referendum was a similarly close and contentious two horse race.
On 23 June the bookmarkers offered up to 9/1 on the UK to vote for Brexit. Anyone putting £10 on Brexit would have won £90, and got their £10 back, when the UK voted to leave the EU (also see How Did the Markets Get the Referendum So Wrong?
As always, investors need to assess the risks
and their downside before they trade.
The information and comments provided herein under no circumstances are to be considered an offer or solicitation to invest and nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. The information provided is believed to be accurate at the date the information is produced.
By Adam Jepsen, 27 October 2016