Gruelling Presidential Campaign Should Hurt Trump the Most
The Market and Political View from Adam Jepsen, Founder, Financial Spreads.
Gruelling Campaign Should Hurt Trump More than Clinton
Hillary Clinton is ahead in the polls, many of the battleground states and one large bookmaker has already paid out on Hillary becoming the next US President.
However, she is often only 3-6% ahead of Trump and 10% of those polled seem to be undecided or too embarrassed to admit that they'd vote for the businessman.
A Clinton win is far from guaranteed but the former First Lady has an interesting advantage.
In what is a very long race, Donald Trump's mismanaged campaign is using a lot more energy and that could easily create more problems in the final weeks.
- - - Two Horse Race - - -
About six months ago I put a smallish bet on Trump to win the US Presidential election at 5/1. Trump was busy tearing up both the political rule book and the other Republican candidates.
My thinking was that he would win the Republican nomination and get closer to Hillary in the betting markets. I would then either close my trade for a profit or switch it to Hillary.
Trump duly won the Republican nomination but six months later he's still 5/1 to be President (and Hillary is 1/5).
The problem is that every time the billionaire has gotten close to Hillary in the polls, he's shot himself in the foot. It is as though he wants to protect the Second Amendment just so he has access to assault weapons with which to hurt himself.
- - - Stamina - - -
US Presidential race is a bizarrely long campaign and you must surely need Olympian-level stamina.
Hillary announced her candidacy on 12 April 2015 and her first Democrat TV debate was on 13 October 2015.
announced his candidacy a little later on 16 June 2015 but his first Republican TV debate was 6 August 2015.
By the election
on 8 November they will both have been campaigning for about one and a half years.
In a gruelling race both politicians are surely hindered by their age. The Democrat is 68 and the Republican is 70. While I hope to have their stamina when I get my free bus-pass the long campaign must be taking its toll.
- - - Hillary to Fall at the Final Hurdle? - - -
Yes, there are a number of independent candidates but this remains a two horse race.
Hillary is disliked, deemed to be untrustworthy and also seen as part of the political establishment that so much of the electorate despises. And yet she is still in the lead.
has a whole raft of problems and he finds it difficult to stay 'on message' at the best of times. He has also made more mistakes than Sarah Palin (and she was only a running mate).
The problem with such a long race is that Trump must have used up so much more energy just to stay within touching distance of Clinton
With the mental and physical fatigue I expect his poor feet to take another salvo over the next few weeks.
Also, I wouldn't be surprised if, despite the threat of law suits, more skeletons come out of his Narnia-sized closet.
The pressure that he puts himself and his team under is immense. The frequent change of campaign managers, the constant fire fighting, and inability to stay on the front foot, must sap energy.
Clinton must also be exhausted and Trump really needs her to fall at the final hurdle.
While the Democrat will remain unloved and occasionally smug, like the rest of her unremarkable campaign, you also expect her to remain professional.
That leaves her and her team on the front foot and with a little more gas in the tank.
With the polls still not showing a clear winner the race certainly isn't over. However it's difficult to see how Hillary will fall at the final hurdle. I may have to write off my bet.
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By Adam Jepsen, 23 October 2016